U.S. Student Visa Drop Sparks Major Concern Amid Policy Shifts

The United States issued 22% fewer F-1 student visas in May 2025 compared to the same month last year, raising alarm across the higher education sector. Experts warn that this downward trend is expected to worsen as the full impact of the recent visa interview suspension takes hold.

May also saw a 13% year-over-year drop in J-1 exchange visas, further fueling concerns among international education advocates.

“There are definitely reasons to be seriously concerned,” said Zuzana Cepla Wootson, deputy director of federal policy at the Presidents’ Alliance. “The drop is real.”

From May 27 to June 26, the U.S. paused new visa interviews — a move Wootson called “terribly timed” during peak application season. She expects June’s visa issuance data to fall even further, as it’s typically the busiest month for student visa approvals.

Beyond the Freeze
While the May freeze only affected one week, Wootson noted other significant contributing factors:

• SEVIS record terminations
• A broad travel ban issued June 6
• Ongoing appointment backlogs and new vetting procedures

These developments have already disrupted travel plans for thousands of students and scholars, creating what Wootson described as a “chilling effect” among prospective applicants.

Interview Delays and New Screening Rules
Even after the freeze was lifted, students—especially from high-demand countries like India—are struggling to book visa interviews. Additional delays have emerged from new social media screening rules, pushing many applications into prolonged administrative processing.

“We haven’t seen denials based solely on social media content,” said Aaron Blumberg of Fragomen immigration law firm. “But consular officers rarely explain rejections in detail.”

Visa appointment delays vary globally, with U.S. embassies in India and Japan still warning students that appointments cannot be guaranteed this summer.

Stark Declines Among Key Countries
Students from Iran (-65%), Myanmar (-64.5%), and Venezuela (-46%) faced the steepest declines in May visa approvals. These same countries were included in the Trump administration’s June 6 travel ban, targeting 12 nations.

For example, visa approvals for Iranian students fell from over 250 in May 2024 to just 90 this May—a decline many scholars say reflects discriminatory and politically driven policies.

Fall Enrolment at Risk
The full impact on fall 2025 enrollment won’t be clear until September, but early indicators are troubling. According to a June NAFSA survey of over 90 anonymous submissions, 73% of institutions expect a drop in international student numbers due to visa disruptions and stricter screening.

“Even if July sees a rebound, it won’t be enough to offset the disruption,” Wootson said.

Compounding the issue, many students with terminated SEVIS records in April have opted to stay in the U.S. over the summer, unsure if they’ll be able to return if they leave.

International Interest Dwindling
Studyportals data shows U.S. student interest at its lowest level since the pandemic, with students increasingly turning to countries like the UK and Australia.

“With classes starting in just over a month, urgent action is needed,” said Wootson. “If things don’t move quickly, many students simply won’t arrive in time.”

A Broader Downward Trend
The May decline adds to a larger drop across the 2025 fiscal year. ApplyBoard reports a 15% year-over-year decrease in F-1 visa issuance between October 2024 and March 2025. This period includes the start of Donald Trump’s second term, which began January 20.

One of the most surprising data points: a 44% drop in F-1 visas issued to Indian students. Despite India being the U.S.'s top source market, the decline appears to be driven more by reduced visa approval rates than falling student interest.

Glimmers of Growth in Emerging Markets
Despite the downturn, some countries saw increased student visa approvals:

• Vietnam (+20%) — now the third-largest source country
• Zimbabwe (+162%)
• Bangladesh (+20%)
• Colombia (+23%)

Chinese student numbers remained steady from October to March, but recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio—promising to “aggressively revoke” Chinese student visas—could change that trajectory.

“With seven of our top eight markets down, it’s critical we shift focus to emerging student populations,” said ApplyBoard’s Lindsey Lopez. “Data-driven strategy is essential in this rapidly evolving policy landscape.”

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