US Fall 2025 Intake May Drop by Up to 25%, Indian Students Grow Anxious

The number of Indian students heading to the United States for higher education is expected to decline by 20–25% for the Fall 2025 semester, compared to last year. This projected drop is largely due to disruptions in the US visa appointment system and rising uncertainty surrounding the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program — two key factors influencing students’ decisions.

Visa Disruptions During Peak Application Period
A near month-long freeze on US student visa appointments — from May 27 to June 18 — severely affected Indian students during the critical application window. Major US consulates in high-demand regions such as Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad were forced to pause operations, leaving thousands of applicants in limbo.

“This disruption came right in the peak season when most F-1 visa applications are processed,” said Mamta Jani, founder of Ontrack Education. “Students were unsure if their visas would be approved in time to begin their programs.”

The impact is reflected in the official data: F-1 visa issuances between January and April 2025 dropped 12% compared to the same period last year, while May alone saw a sharper 22% decline. Despite visa services resuming, appointment slots remain scarce.

According to Karunn Kandoi, founder and CEO of Vidysea Education, “The freeze affected tens of thousands of Indian applicants. Even now, slot availability continues to be a major bottleneck.”

Typically, nearly 70% of international student visas are issued between May and July — a crucial time for students enrolling in the US for the fall semester.

OPT Uncertainty Adds to Financial Concerns
Compounding the issue is growing anxiety over the future of the OPT program. OPT allows international students to gain work experience in the US in a field related to their studies after graduation. For many Indian students, OPT is essential not only for career development but also for repaying education loans taken to fund expensive international degrees.

In April 2025, a bill titled HR 2315 was introduced in the US House of Representatives proposing the complete elimination of OPT for F-1 visa holders. Adding to concerns, the Dignity Act of 2025, introduced just last month, suggests additional taxation on income earned by foreign students working under OPT.

“This is especially troubling for Indian families who plan finances around the opportunity to work post-study,” Jani added. “With so much uncertainty, many are now reconsidering or deferring their US plans.”

Broader Impact on US Universities
The expected fall in Indian student numbers could have significant financial implications for US universities, many of which rely on international enrollments. Last month, Moody’s Ratings highlighted that restrictive immigration policies under the Trump administration could deter international students and put financial pressure on institutions.

India has emerged as the top source of international students for the US. In 2024, 331,602 Indian students studied in the US — a 23% increase from the previous year, surpassing China for the first time, according to the Open Doors Report.

But with recent developments, that growth momentum may not continue. As policy uncertainty and logistical hurdles mount, students and families are becoming increasingly wary of investing in a US education.

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