Sharp Decline in International Students Could Cost US $7 Billion, 60,000 Jobs

The United States is on track to face one of the steepest declines in international student enrollments in recent years, with projections indicating a 30–40% drop in new foreign student enrollments for the September 2025 intake.

A joint analysis by NAFSA (Association of International Educators) and JB International reveals that the fall intake, a critical enrollment period for US universities, is likely to see a sharp contraction. The anticipated shortfall would represent a 15% overall decline in international student enrollment for the 2025–26 academic year — a potential loss of 150,000 students compared to last year.

$7 Billion Economic Impact and 60,000 Jobs at Risk
Beyond academic implications, the decline poses a major economic threat. According to the NAFSA/JB International study, the US could lose $7 billion in revenue and over 60,000 jobs across the country due to the drop in student numbers.

NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw called the projected decline “one of the most significant drops in international enrollment in recent times.”

“The immediate financial impact is only part of the story,” Aw emphasized. “International students are vital to American innovation, research, and global competitiveness. They contribute significantly to local communities and academic institutions. Turning them away risks long-term damage.”

What’s Causing the Decline?
The report highlights four key factors contributing to the anticipated downturn:

• Suspension of Visa Interviews (May 27 – June 18): This pause came during peak application season for fall admissions and disrupted the timelines of thousands of students.
• Limited Visa Appointment Availability: Even after services resumed in late June, appointment slots remained scarce in key countries.
• Reduced Visa Issuance in Early 2025: F-1 visa issuances fell 12% between January and April, and dropped 22% in May compared to the same months in 2024.

Ongoing Travel Bans and policy restrictions from the US administration, adding further obstacles for prospective students.

Visa availability remains a challenge in several critical markets including India, China, Nigeria, and Japan, according to field reports and updates from US universities.

Massive Visa Disruptions in June
According to JB International CEO Jason Baumgartner, the visa pause had a lasting impact: “The final days of May marked the start of the visa processing freeze, which lasted into the third week of June. Even when processing resumed, the State Department was still working through changes in its vetting procedures.”

“As a result, visa issuance in June may have plunged by as much as 80–90%,” Baumgartner added, warning that the full enrollment fallout could be even greater than current projections suggest.

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